Times change, and it’s always easy to be smart when looking back. But when you’re back there, things are rarely that obvious. We can laugh at Bill Gates for saying that 640k of RAM is all anyone will ever need (or did he?), but predicting the future is a whole different ball game.
An excellent book on the topic that I would recommend is “Fooled By Randomness”. Read it if you haven’t read it, and I promise you’ll see things differently.
The same is true for our world. Sure, we could envision social media in a way. Personally I played a social game called “Global War” on a self hosted BBS (predecessor of websites) in the 1980’s, and the “reply all” button in any email system was a form of many to many communications (Social Media), but few people could forsee the incredible impact and breadth that many to many-communications would come to have. Or mobile phones for that matter. Or that two youngsters in a garage could launch the world’s biggest television network in just two years from scratch and with no money (YouTube).
And that makes me wonder – what will have happened in another two years? Or five? (I guess going beyond five doesn’t make any sense). This evolutionary jolt is not over yet, and I believe there are more empires to be built on the potential that this enormous technological and behavioral shift has created. In two years, when looking back, this will be obvious. And we’ll all say “I could have done that”.
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